Rising Calls to Invoke the 25th Amendment

Market Signals

Prediction‑market platforms reported a noticeable uptick in the probability that President Donald Trump could be removed under the 25th Amendment over the past weekend. Kalshi and Polymarket estimates rose to roughly one‑third, reflecting intensified speculation as the conflict with Iran escalates.

Political Pressure

Conservative commentator Scott McConnell publicly urged Vice President J.D. Vance to back a transition of power based on the amendment. The appeal was echoed by several lawmakers after Trump’s Easter‑day X post, in which he threatened “open the fuckin’ strait,” prompting cabinet members to be pressed for a constitutional response.

Former White House counsel Ty Cobb labeled the president “clearly insane” and questioned why the cabinet has not acted. Senator Chris Murphy, among others, called the rhetoric “completely unhinged” and said he would spend the holiday consulting constitutional lawyers.

Outlook

Despite the flurry of calls, the 25th Amendment remains a last‑resort mechanism. Historically, its activation requires the vice president and a majority of the cabinet, a threshold that has not yet been met.